So far we know very little about either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines other than what's been pushed out by their corporate PR groups.
There's still NO data and no scientific papers for peer-review from either company. So we still have no clear understanding of their definition of "effective" or their definition of "95%".
These are NOT terms with objective definitions but rely on the original study design and how the statistical analysts interpreted the intentions of the study design.
This is why seeing an actual paper outlying those details along with a full release of data is critical before ANYONE can make an informed decision.
End of Phase III Trials Announced
More concerning is that they're ending Phase III trials after just over 90-days in. Wrapping up five months early without ever achieving full enrollment. That is an insanely short period of time for a novel vaccine trial. And a very small test population especially if you're interested in observing adverse effects.
Again, perhaps there is evidence that's not yet been released to justify such a move, but with vaccine trials that typically last 5+ years, a 90-day timeline seems extraordinary.
Confidence of Corporate Leadership in their Vaccines
My other concern is the behavior of senior leadership at both Moderna and Pfizer.
Just since the Phase III trials have started, the top three corporate officers at Moderna have dumped over $100M of Moderna stock. These stock trades are required to be reported to the SEC and are then made public through the SEC Form 4 reporting site.
At Moderna, no one has been buying stock, but those with direct access to the vaccine trials data have been dumping stock on a weekly basis for months now.
Meanwhile, over at Pfizer…one day after the Pfizer vaccine announcement, the CEO dumped over 60% of his Pfizer stock along with the Chief Corporate Affairs Officer.
Again, during this time period, not a single member of the senior leadership team in either company has purchased a single share of their company's stock. It’s been exclusively sell-orders. These are very people who have actually seen the full data and the full details on the vaccine trials.
There are many valid reasons for senior leadership in a publicly-traded company to be dumping their stock, but it’s generally NOT an indication that the senior executives believe their companies are poised for positive news over the coming few months.
Concluding Thoughts
Given that all we have access to are a few paragraphs written by some PR consultant, I remain skeptical of the scientific backing that supports these vaccine claims. Perhaps that view will change over the coming weeks if and when these companies share their data and offer their findings for formal scientific review.
These are entirely new categories of vaccines, never before used with humans. And these never-before-deployed vaccines are being approved after only a bit over 90-days of trials. Trials that have been terminated early! Absolutely everything about this process has been extraordinary and entirely unprecedented.
But here’s the deal…extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof!
All we have at this point are glowing press releases pushed out by corporate communications departments.
Personally, in the absence of seeing some extraordinary data, my benchmark for taking the vaccine is 6-months after the first 20M people have been vaccinated...until then, I'm going to just keep doing what I've been doing to stay safe…
Source Documents:
Moderna Press Release:
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/modernas-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-meets-its-primary-efficacy
Pfizer Press Release:
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine
SEC Form 4 - Moderna:
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1682852.htm
SEC Form 4 - Pfizer:
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/78003.htm
About the author:
I am a scientist with 20+ years in the biotech industry. I currently work as a consultant with companies involved in developing molecular diagnostics platforms, including some of the key testing platforms used to detect the SarsCoV2 virus.
So I bring an insider’s perspective that is scientifically oriented but directed to a general audience trying to make sense of the conflicting stories surrounding the Covid pandemic.
To learn more: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dalewharrison/
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Excellent counterpoint to the press releases!