We are now solidly into the 4th Covid wave in the US.
Based on past waves, it should take about 6 weeks to peak and another 8-10 weeks to return to baseline. Which means it's too late to get vaccinated (more on that at the end).
With a 2-week doubling rate (where we currently are), that would suggest a peak around the 1st week of September at or above 200,000 cases/day based on where we are at about 55,000 cases/day right now.
By comparison, last summer's wave peaked at 70,000 cases/day. We are already almost at that prior peak and things have just gotten started!
Last winter's wave peaked at 300,000 cases/day during the 1st week of January 2021 and this wave will likely push into that territory.
The Data
If you look at the graphics below, right now we see cases rising on a week-over-week basis for 100% of US states! With testing rising in 2/3 of states.
More ominously, the prevalence rate in the southern states is out of control. With most of the southern states running between 40 to 65 cases-per-100k population per day. Texas is at 25 cases per-per-100k! By contrast, the highly vaccinated northeastern states remain largely unaffected. So we are right now in the opening stages of the next major wave.
The Unvaccinated
I would expect to see about 10-12M Covid cases between now and early October, by which time we will return to a low baseline. That's equal to a THIRD of all diagnosed cases since January 2020! So this should be a major wave.
90% of that will be in the unvaccinated population with very little in the vaccinated population. Those most at risk in the vaccinated population will be everyone over 65 because vaccines in general work rather poorly in that age group, including the SarsCoV2 vaccines. As well as anyone with one or more co-morbidities, especially obesity and Type-II diabetes.
65%+ of these cases will be in only about a dozen southern red states. The US has 176M people unvaccinated with about 40% of those concentrated in just 12-15 southern and southwestern red states.
And if you take the under-12 population out of the picture, the divide is vastly starker than these numbers make it appear.
It's not 10-year-olds who are crowding into bars and gyms and restaurants. So the fraction of the adult population engaging in full-risk behavior in the southern red states is still quite high and still the overwhelming majority. More so than the raw percent-vaccinated numbers would indicate.
The Social Divide
There's increasingly a social divide between the two groups, the vaccinated and the those who refuse, with increasingly little social mixing.
Personally, I'm entertaining again, but I will not attend any events with unvaccinated individuals nor will I allow an unvaccinated person inside my house.
This seems to be a growing social pattern. Vaccinated socialize with vaccinated...while those who think the vaccine is the Mark of the Beast with Bill-Gates-Microchips® all flock together separately.
And because of these changes in social dynamics, the fully vaccinated population is probably near herd immunity, while the unvaccinated population will see ZERO social herd immunity benefits from those already vaccinated.
The social benefit of reduced prevalence and reduced risk of exposure that public vaccination programs confer only work if there's full social mixing between the groups.
This is why measles has been kept to as low a level as it has been...in spite of anti-vaxxer idiots. There's full mixing between the populations, so few at-risk targets ever come into contact because they're buffered by a largely vaccinated population.
Your Herd Immunity is Only as Good as the Herd You Hang With!
So the 176M unvaccinated, all crowding together maskless into restaurants, bars, and gyms will face an exposure risk identical to late last year before the vaccines were available.
Too Late to Increase Vaccinations
Finally, it's largely too late to get vaccinated. If you rushed out to get vaccinated today, it would be late August before you could get your 2nd shot, and early-to-mid September before you'd be protected.
You'd still have partial protection by the time things peak and would be protected during the wind-down phase in September and October, but time has largely run out.
People's best bet is to mask and dial back on most social activities (especially in indoor venues).
Personally, I'm fully masking again and switching to 3M 1860 respirators and am have stopped outside activity. So I'm increasingly just hunkering down until this thing runs its course by October.
The Winter Wave Next
Also, expect an even larger winter wave coming by late November through mid-January. What's increasingly clear, is this is NOT a seasonal disease, but a virus whose disease dynamics are almost entirely human-driven.
This is essentially an indoor virus. And summer is the indoor season in the South and winter is the indoor season in the North (and in the South during Jan-Feb).
It's that human dynamic coupled with political willingness to engage in mitigation behavior that explains almost all of the disease dynamics, including the political forces actively discouraging widespread vaccination.
We are on a 6-month full viral replacement cycle...where an entirely new adaptive variant appears and spreads to 100% of cases within a 6-month window. Only for that cycle to repeat again 6 months later.
So expect to see a matching every-six-month Covid wave for years to come. One in the summer hitting the southern and southwestern states...and one in the winter hitting all states except those at 80% to 90% vaccination levels.
This virus is now fully endemic and never going away and will likely remain an entirely new 3rd leading cause of death in the US for the remainder of our lives at 200,000 to 300,000 Covid deaths a year!
Places like Boston, Vermont, Connecticut, Seattle, San Francisco that are reaching 80%+ vaccination rates will be almost entirely spared.
Places like Texas and Florida with political leadership fighting to keep the virus spreading…and places like Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas with only 1/3 of the population vaccinated will be 3rd-world hell-holes...
About the author:
I am a scientist with 20+ years in the biotech industry. I currently work as a consultant with companies involved in developing molecular diagnostics platforms, including some of the key testing platforms used to detect the SarsCoV2 virus.
So I bring an insider’s perspective that is scientifically oriented but directed to a general audience trying to make sense of the conflicting stories surrounding the Covid pandemic.
To learn more: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dalewharrison/
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Hello from Texas … quick question, my daughter & I had covid in December and had held off on getting vaccinated bc of our antibodies but are now frantic to vaccinate. Since we’ve obviously waited too long on the 2 dose vaccines, would you suggest J&J possibly? (I’m 48, my daughter is 13) Thanks again for everything you’re doing … Amie Sikes, Round Top, Texas
Hi from Australia! I am 20 weeks pregnant and considering getting vaccinated with Pfizer the only vaccine available to pregnant women in Australia. What are your thoughts around pregnancy and vaccination?
Thank you for any advice.